Prognosis vs Forecast

effthreeeggo

Kind of a random question, but when you look at the Goals panel you get a certain Prognosis distance for the year based on your current average per day. However, when you click on the Progression Graph and loo at the Forecast for the current year, you get a different number, typically higher than the Prognosis number.

What is the difference between these numbers? How are each calculated?

mipapo

The progression graph uses smoothing and the goal plugin a simple how many days have passed/how many kilometers are done - How many days are left. Simple one

effthreeeggo

So, if I understand you, the forecast does not use smoothing? Just a simple linear equation?

Laufhannes

As mipapo said, the 'Goals' panel uses a linear extrapolation. So far you've done X km/day and the panel uses this as extrapolation.

The Progression graph has an explicit option 'Forecast smoothing' which defines the date range for which the average is calculated. For me this defaults to e.g. 46 days right now (for year progression). That means my average distance over the last 46 days is used for extrapolation.